Adam Back’s “Months To Cover mNAV” Metric Offers New Lens for Bitcoin Treasury Valuation

Blockstream CEO Adam Back has introduced a valuation framework for Bitcoin treasury companies built around the concept of “months to cover mNAV,” a metric that gauges how quickly a firm’s Bitcoin accumulation justifies its market cap.

Back’s logic is straightforward: when a company’s BTC-per-share growth (accretion) is fast enough, even a high market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) multiple can be reasonable.

“Accretion rate > yield,” he wrote, emphasizing growth over static returns.

accretion rate > yield.#bitcoin treasury company terminology thought.
— Adam Back (@adam3us) July 12, 2025

He explained the metric using Japan-based Metaplanet as an example.

At one point, the company had a 3.3x mNAV and a 100% BTC yield in three months, meaning it could “cover” that premium in about five months.

suggested treasury company metric: "months to mNAV cover" eg @Metaplanet_JP has 2x yield (100%) in 3 months. and yet mNAV is 3.3x. so it would take 5 months at 2x to cover the mNAV, after that further yield is all upside (assuming btc/share increases reflect in pricing).
— Adam Back (@adam3us) May 10, 2025

Back added, “that’s what months to cover is for... then you can ride the accumulating flywheel with a 1x mNAV floor under you.”

Back has also disclosed his own trades based on this model, buying Metaplanet stock at 3.3x and 5x mNAV and selling at 7x, then re-entering at 4x, citing that “the mNAV is more important than price.”

While Back originally proposed the 'Months to Cover' concept, the broader community has adapted it into 'Days to Cover,' as some companies have fast coverage rates, a shift popularized by analysts like BitcoinPowerLaw and Marty Kendall.

In his piece, Kendall describes it as a “brutally honest test” for determining whether a company’s Bitcoin growth rate justifies its valuation.

According to his analysis, smaller players like MetaPlanet and The Blockchain Group had much shorter coverage periods (110–152 days) than more established firms like Strategy (626 days), reflecting faster compounding despite smaller treasuries.

Back believes this framework can help investors separate “BTC builders from BTC branders,” and many in the Bitcoin finance community are beginning to agree.

As interest in Bitcoin treasuries grows, the months-to-cover mNAV metric may offer a more clear, yield-based foundation for valuing the companies behind them.